Checkerspot Biosciences
Healthy Fats & Oils
Business Model & Scale-Up Plan
FEL-2
AACE Class 4
Checkerspot develops healthy fats and oils using microalgae and precision fermentation. Under a Planning Phase Award from the Defense Industrial Base Consortium, Roebling served as its engineering partner from the techno-economic model through a 90+ site search to an FEL-2 package. That work helped Checkerspot move to a capital-light model built on partnerships.
500+ scenarios
run across sites, scales, funding opportunities, product splits, and toll versus build options
5 months
from techno-economic model through site selection to a completed FEL-2 package
Within 5%
Roebling's initial model compared to the FEL-2 cost estimate from the engineering firm
Challenge
The facility combines three integrated processes, and each one leads to a different product with its own added CapEx and processing. For every product, Checkerspot had to decide whether to use contract manufacturing or build new, and at what scale to match demand. Those choices depended on the site, and the site depended on the design. Checkerspot needed one engineering partner to carry the whole scope, from early feasibility to an FEL-2 package.
Solution
Roebling built one techno-economic model that tested sites, scales, product splits, and toll versus build for each part of the process. Once the design basis was settled, Roebling wrote the RFPs for the FEL-2 engineering scope, ran a competitive bid, and managed the selected engineering firm through delivery. The FEL-2 outputs fed back into the same model, so the business case updated on the real cost basis without a rebuild.
Results
The model showed what it would take for Checkerspot to build and run its own facility at commercial scale. Together with its current partnerships, that work showed Checkerspot that the global infrastructure to turn its molecules into ingredients already exists. Checkerspot moved to a capital-light, molecule licensing model. The agreements may be structured as licenses, but each one works as a true partnership, with both parties bringing novel lipid-based ingredients to global markets.
Deliverables
Process & Engineering
Process Simulation
Three integrated processes modeled in one simulation.
Basis of Design
Developed in house and settled before FEL-2, so scope change largely dropped out.
Process Flow Diagrams
Developed in house for the FEL-2 package.
Equipment Data Sheets
Data sheets for the major equipment in the FEL-2 design.
Utility Load List & Utility Summaries
Utility loads for the selected design, delivered in the FEL-2 package.
Facility Layout
The layout for the selected site and design.
Cost & Economics
Techno-Economic Model
Tested sites, scales, product splits, and toll versus build for each part of the process.
Business Case Analysis by Scenario & Product Split
Each product evaluated for contract manufacturing versus build new across a range of scales.
Sized & Priced Equipment List
Carried forward from the same model into FEL-2.
Budgetary Pricing for Major Equipment
Pricing for major equipment to firm up the FEL-2 cost basis.
Total Installed Cost Estimate
Initial model within 5% of the engineering firm's FEL-2 estimate.
Sensitivity Analysis & Tornado Diagrams
The process, site, and funding variables that matter most to project success.
TEM Summary Report
The business case updated on the FEL-2 cost basis without a rebuild.
Scale & Project Planning
Site Selection Study & Candidate Site Shortlist
90+ sites across 9 states, including 15 off-market, to a final four: two brownfield, one co-location, and one greenfield.
Four-Stage Commercial Scale-Up Plan
Balances early CapEx against product demand, the lowest-risk path of those tested.
RFPs & Competitive Bid for FEL-2 Engineering
Roebling wrote the RFPs, ran the bid, and managed the selected firm through delivery.
Project Development & Execution Plan
Cost and CapEx evaluated at each stage of scale-up.
Project Execution Plan
The execution plan for the FEL-2 scope.
Project Schedule
The schedule for the selected site and scale-up path.
"Every product decision depended on the site, and the site depended on the design. Roebling put all of it in one model, which showed us what owning production would take. Together with our partnerships, it helped us see that the infrastructure to make our ingredients already exists, so we could stay capital light."
Laura Metrulas
Corporate Strategy Director, Checkerspot Biosciences
The Approach
Settle the design basis before the scope grows.
The site search started with over 90 sites across 9 states, including 15 off-market sites Roebling found through its own networks.
Twelve sites ran through the techno-economic model, narrowing to 4 finalists: 2 brownfield sites, 1 co-location opportunity, and 1 greenfield site.
Each product was evaluated for contract manufacturing versus build new across a range of scales, and the best answer changed with scale.
Upside and downside scenarios accounted for a process that is still being optimized.
CapEx tends to grow through FEL for two reasons: better cost data and scope change. Running the scenario analysis up front settled the design basis, so scope change largely dropped out. Roebling developed the basis of design and process flow diagrams in house, did the majority of the process engineering, and managed the engineering firm through the FEL-2 package. A four-stage commercial scale-up plan and project execution plan evaluated cost and CapEx at each stage.
What the teams say
We value your privacy
We use cookies to improve site functionality. Some cookies help us understand how visitors use our site.